[ ABOUT // BUCHIANG ]

prediction-market intelligence · open data · calibrated verdicts

What this is

buchiang.com aggregates three orthogonal real-time signals into one terminal:

• Polymarket whale flow — every on-chain bet from large wallets, surfaced within seconds of confirmation. The bets are public; the work is filtering, joining wallet history, and presenting at a glance.
• AI Jury verdicts — a multi-model parallel inference layer reads breaking news, maps it to live Polymarket markets, and publishes a directional call (YES / NO) plus confidence. Every verdict is timestamped and counterfactually validated 24h later.
• CEX 2nd-wave candidates — daily shortlist of altcoin perpetuals that have flushed leverage, retraced from local highs, and reset funding — the microstructure footprint that historically precedes second-leg moves. Re-screened at 06:00 UTC.

BTC large-position monitoring (Hyperliquid liquidation map) and a Fear-&-Greed banner sit on top, because macro context changes the read of every signal underneath.

Why it exists

Most prediction-market analysis has the same two failure modes: (1) it's behind a paywall, so you can't audit the track record, and (2) the verdicts are stated only when they're right. buchiang takes the opposite stance: every verdict, every wrong call, every settled outcome stays public, with timestamps. Accuracy is computed live from the same data the page renders. There is no "select cases" presentation.

If the 30-day accuracy drops, you see it on the dashboard before anyone has time to spin it.

Who this is for

• Polymarket players who want to see whale entries before they propagate to Twitter.
• CEX traders looking for asymmetric reset setups without scanning 200 perp pairs by hand.
• News-driven traders who want a structured second opinion on directional impact.
• Anyone who prefers raw timestamps to vibes.

What this is NOT

• Not a SaaS. No paid tier is planned. No "premium signals". The free version is the full version.
• Not investment advice. Every page renders public market data. What you do with it is your call.
• Not a black box. Methodology is documented (see Methodology). System health is exposed live (see Status). Source signals are auditable on-chain or via the upstream news / exchange feeds.
• Not optimised for retention metrics. No engagement-bait notifications, no streak nags, no FOMO copy. The site loads, shows you the state of the world, lets you leave.

Operating model

AI Jury inference happens on dedicated hardware separate from the public web tier — the inference layer pushes verdicts via signed HMAC contract; the public tier never has access to the models or thresholds. CEX scanning is a separate cron job on its own machine. Three isolated stacks, three separate concerns, one published surface.

This separation is why the system can stay running while individual components are rebuilt.

Feedback / Bug reports

Found a bug, have an improvement idea, think a winrate looks wrong, want a feature — all welcome:

info@buchiang.com

No support SLA, but every email gets a real reply. I'd rather spend time answering mail and shipping improvements than running a Telegram group or Discord.

Subscribe / RSS

Don't want to come back and refresh every day:

• /rss/verdicts.xml — every AI Jury verdict pushed in real time
• /rss/whales.xml — every Polymarket whale signal pushed in real time

Subscribe with any RSS reader (Feedly / NetNewsWire / Reeder / Inoreader). Zero tracking, zero account, zero client-side overhead.

[ buchiang@v1 // online since 2026-Q1 ]